It’s now three weeks to the presidential election on March 28,
and things are shaping up already for the big day. The parties are
rounding off their campaigns. INEC is doing mock elections to test run
its equipment and operations. The world is watching what’s going to
happen in the coming weeks. Who will win this election?
Naij.com commentator on political issues, Adedayo Ademuwagun, has compiled a list of states where it is likely APC candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, will lose the polls.
Naij.com commentator on political issues, Adedayo Ademuwagun, has compiled a list of states where it is likely APC candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, will lose the polls.
Muhammadu Buhari has
undoubtedly had a phenomenal run in this election. He’s transformed from
being a bigoted strongman to being charismatic leader that people
nationwide now look up to for change. He might just well win this
election.
However, there are some states where
Buhari might lose this election based on recent history and the
sociopolitical circumstances in those states. Here are 17 states where
this might happen.
1. Benue
Benue
is a predominantly Christian state in the middle belt. In the last
election Jonathan best Buhari here and clinched over 66% of the votes.
Buhari might lose here again this year. The state is run by a PDP
government.
2. Kogi
Jonathan soundly
beat Buhari in Kogi in 2011. He got 70% of the votes. Kogi has a
significant Christian population and is governed by the PDP.
3. Plateau
Jonathan defeated Buhari in Plateau by a wide margin last time. Plateau is mainly Christian and has a PDP government.
4. Abuja
This
is the seat of government where President Jonathan is in charge. He
grabbed over two-thirds of the votes in 2011 and won comfortably. The
federal government-run things in Abuja and this could be a disadvantage
to Buhari.
5. Taraba
Buhari only
mustered half the number of votes Jonathan won in this state last time.
It’s a mainly Christian state and the government is PDP.
6. Adamawa
Buhari
bowed to Jonathan here in 2011. It’s one of the two states in the
northeast where Buhari lost to Jonathan. It’s a predominantly Christian
state.
7. Abia
Jonathan won 99% of the
votes here while Buhari won less than 1%. The east is Buhari’s worst
nightmare. Abia is mainly Christian.
8. Ebonyi
Again Buhari fared woefully here last time. He didn’t even get 1,000 votes here. The PDP is in charge in Ebonyi.
9. Anambra
Anambra
is run by the APGA but the people are leaning towards Jonathan. Anambra
is the heart of Igbo territory. A Buhari victory is unlikely here.
10. Enugu
Like
Anambra, Enugu is the heart of Igbo territory. Jonathan neatly beat
Buhari here last time. The general didn’t get 0.5% of the votes here.
The people are likely going to vote Jonathan. It’s a PDP state.
11. Bayelsa
A
Buhari win in Bayelsa will be a complete miracle. This is Jonathan’s
home. He swept virtually all the votes here last time. It may not happen
like that again this month, but surely his people will get behind him.
12. Delta
This
state is strongly PDP and more likely to vote Jonathan than Buhari.
Jonathan won over 98% of the votes here in 2011. Buhari hardly commands
any following in this state.
13. Edo
Governor
Oshiomhole’s popularity has dwindled in the past few years and so even
though the state government is run by Buhari’s party, it’s not certain
that the general would take the prize here. But it’s possible.
14. Akwa Ibom
Akwa Ibom voted resoundingly for Jonathan in 2011 and it’s a PDP state. Buhari will have a hard time taking this state.
15. Cross Rivers
Cross
Rivers has a PDP government. Buhari lost to Jonathan here in the
previous election. Jonathan is more likely to win here despite
everything.
16. Ekiti
Ekiti is one of
two states in the west controlled by the PDP. The governor is chiefly
behind Jonathan and he’s got a huge grassroots following. He’s a man of
the people. He’s capable of swaying his people.
17. Ondo
is the other state in the west controlled by the PDP. Like Governor
Fayose of Ekiti, Ondo governor Mimiko also has a strong grassroots
following and is backing Jonathan. But maybe Buhari can surmount the
challenge and snatch a win in this state.
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